The Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI)
According to the report from the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI), there is a projected 1.2% decline in the values of global merchandise trade in 2024 compared to 2023. The report explains that this forecast is based on historical trends that illustrate the correlation between trade volumes and trade values. It notes that in 2023, there was a 1.2% decrease in world trade volume and a 5% decline in value compared to the previous year.
The WTO forecast, notably, does not factor in the impact on trade values, a commonly utilized parameter for evaluating trade performance.
Determining trade value is relatively straightforward, involving the summation of transaction values. Conversely, assessing trade volume entails a more intricate process, beyond merely summing up quantities of various commodities such as iron ore and diamonds. GTRI highlights that oversimplifying this calculation could lead to inaccurate conclusions.
To calculate changes in trade volumes, the WTO employs a sophisticated method involving deflation—a process of adjusting trade values to accommodate price fluctuations. This method utilizes specific price indices for different goods and services categories, ensuring that the measured trade volume accurately reflects the actual quantity of traded goods and services, rather than being skewed by price changes.
In 2023, global merchandise exports amounted to $23.8 trillion, while imports totaled $24.2 trillion. This indicates a decline of 4.5% in exports and 5.4% in imports compared to 2022.
