As India celebrates Diwali and the beginning of Samvat 2082, HDFC Securities has unveiled its annual MoneyFest Diwali Picks, expressing optimism for the year ahead despite global volatility. The brokerage believes India is positioned at a critical economic inflection point, driven by robust domestic demand, monetary easing, and supportive government policies.
The report points out that the global market environment remains unsettled due to the escalating US-China trade war. The United States plans to impose 100% tariffs on Chinese imports starting November 1, 2025, while China has announced retaliatory measures on rare earth exports. This standoff, the brokerage warns, could continue into early 2026, disrupting global supply chains. Yet, it also expects a shift in manufacturing and supply chains toward “friendshoring” destinations such as India, Vietnam, and Australia.
Reflecting on the past year, HDFC Securities notes that Indian equities underperformed in Samvat 2081, with Nifty-50 companies posting only single-digit earnings growth. High valuations, weak urban demand recovery, and persistent inflation weighed on sentiment. Foreign investors pulled out ₹2.56 lakh crore from domestic markets, even as strong domestic inflows of ₹5.87 lakh crore offered support. The rupee hit record lows, and geopolitical tensions across regions added to the pressure.
For Samvat 2082, the brokerage remains upbeat about India’s prospects. It expects FY26 to deliver stronger growth than FY25, supported by a 50-basis-point CRR cut, a 100-basis-point rate reduction, improved liquidity, and higher government capital expenditure. The introduction of GST 2.0 and the Reserve Bank of India’s dividend transfer are likely to further stimulate consumption and investment. HDFC Securities anticipates double-digit corporate earnings growth in FY27, suggesting that current market weakness presents an opportunity for long-term investors to accumulate quality stocks at attractive valuations.
According to HDFC Securities, four major investment themes will shape the coming year. First, domestic consumption and financial services are expected to remain key growth drivers, with companies like Pidilite, Associated Alcohols, and IDFC First Bank leading the way. Second, infrastructure and energy transition plays such as L&T and JSW Energy are well-positioned for expansion, supported by large order books and aggressive capacity-building plans. Third, digital and telecom growth remains strong, with Bharti Airtel maintaining its leadership as it pushes for a ₹300 ARPU target. Finally, midcap and niche players like MSTC and Happy Forgings are likely to benefit from their scalable business models and sectoral leadership.
The brokerage also expects macroeconomic stability to strengthen through 2026, aided by softer commodity prices, favorable monsoon conditions, and consistent GST collections. With improved liquidity and supportive policy actions, India’s domestic market is set to remain resilient despite global headwinds. The report emphasizes that mid- and small-cap stocks could deliver superior returns as earnings growth broadens across sectors.
Prepared by HDFC Securities’ research team, including Atul Karwa, Abdul Karim, Darshil Shah, and others, the report carries a standard disclaimer noting that it is intended for informational purposes and should not be treated as investment advice.
In conclusion, HDFC Securities believes that while global uncertainties may cause near-term volatility, Samvat 2082 could mark the beginning of a new growth phase for India. With steady policy support, resilient consumption, and improving corporate fundamentals, the brokerage sees selective, stock-specific investment strategies as the key to outperformance in the year ahead.
