Goldman Sachs Research reports that the likelihood of a U.S. recession in the next year has decreased, reflecting a still-strong job market.
Economists now estimate a 15% chance of recession in the coming 12 months, down from an earlier forecast of 20%. This aligns with the long-term average probability of 15%, according to Jan Hatzius, head of Goldman Sachs Research and chief economist, in the team’s report.
The primary reason for this revised outlook is the decline in the U.S. unemployment rate to 4.051% in September, lower than July’s spike of 4.253% and slightly below June’s 4.054%. Additionally, this rate remains below the threshold that triggers the “Sahm rule,” which signals potential recession onset when the three-month average unemployment rate rises by 0.50% or more from its lowest point in the previous year.
Goldman Sachs Research reports that the likelihood of a U.S. recession in the next year has decreased, reflecting a still-strong job market.
Economists now estimate a 15% chance of recession in the coming 12 months, down from an earlier forecast of 20%. This aligns with the long-term average probability of 15%, according to Jan Hatzius, head of Goldman Sachs Research and chief economist, in the team’s report.
The primary reason for this revised outlook is the decline in the U.S. unemployment rate to 4.051% in September, lower than July’s spike of 4.253% and slightly below June’s 4.054%. Additionally, this rate remains below the threshold that triggers the “Sahm rule,” which signals potential recession onset when the three-month average unemployment rate rises by 0.50% or more from its lowest point in the previous year.
